Stiff Arm Trophy

Heisman Projection Final: 119 ballots

Posted by Kari Chisholm on December 14, 2013 in News.

Well, folks. The Heisman Trust (mostly) got what they wanted. Very few voters wrote columns or went on the air to talk about their ballots. Those that did mostly spoke in (sometimes hilariously obvious) coded langugage.

This year, just 49 voters publicly shared their ballots - with another 70 doing so anonymously (an option I promoted more heavily than in the past.) That's the fewest ballots we've tracked ever - just 12.8% of all voters. In 2002, our first year, we had 127 ballots, or 13.8%. That year, we picked right, but had the order of finish a bit off.

Be sure to check out the item I wrote yesterday about the Heisman's new insistence on secrecy, how it's hurting the Heisman, and what they should do instead.

With 119 ballots in, with 287 votes among them, it's clear that FSU QB Jameis Winston will win the Heisman Trophy. He'll finish among the top three all-time, with 85-89% of the maximum possible points. (When comparing across years, it's important to use percentage-of-max-possible at all times, since the number of votes has varied wildly. Here's the data you're looking for.)

As for the rest of the order of finish, it's going to be very tight. With so few ballots, our statistical confidence in the order is around 70% between each of the slots. In other words, we're about 70% sure that Tre Mason will beat Jordan Lynch for 2nd, Lynch will beat AJ McCarron for 3rd, McCarron will beat Andre Williams for 4th, and that Williams will beat Johnny Manziel for 5th. Of course that means roughly a 15% chance that it'll work exactly like that.

Consider this: If no one goes to the NFL early, we could be looking at three finalists returning to college ball next year - including two Heisman winners.

The Heisman presentation is at 5 p.m. pacific, 8 p.m. eastern on ESPN.

For the twelfth year in a row, we're going to attempt to project the outcome of the greatest individual award in sports, the Heisman Trophy. So far, we've been right eleven out of eleven years.

But to do this, we need your help. If you read/see/hear someone identify themselves as an official voter (with or without their vote), post a comment on our voter tips line or send us a note on Twitter (@stiffarmtrophy). If possible, provide a link (or at least tell us where you saw/heard/read it.)

Our latest projection

Last updated: 12/14/2013 5:52 a.m. Pacific. 119 ballots, 287 votes.

J Winston875294273250389.9%
T Mason71915417463422.8%
J Lynch61115325552618.9%
AJ McCarron31511295043215.5%
A Williams31111254237713.5%
J Manziel091221302599.3%

B Petty04610141294.6%
D Carr1337121244.5%
K Carey01345562.0%
T Bridgewater00555451.6%
B Miller01456451.6%
A Donald00333281.0%
M Mariota01123260.9%
B Sankey01012240.9%
C Hyde01012190.7%
S Skov00222170.6%
K Burke01012130.5%
N Marshall01012130.5%
J Matthews0011190.3%
R Hageman0011190.3%
A Robinson0011160.2%

Got questions? Something look funny? Get answers and read about our methodology.

Have you heard an official voter declare their vote? Post your voter tips on

View the complete list of the nearly 800 official Heisman voters that we know about.
Or check out The Big Chart, every single official Heisman vote that we've found this year.

Got questions? Read more about our methodology, and the results from 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012.