Stiff Arm Trophy

We did it! Nine out of nine.

Posted by Kari Chisholm on December 12, 2010 in News.

For the ninth year in a row, we've correctly projected the winner of the Heisman Trophy. Congratulations to Cam Newton and the Auburn Tigers!

We're also proud to note that for the sixth out of those nine years, we were once again able to correctly project the order of the finalists -- Newton, followed by Andrew Luck, LaMichael James, and Kellen Moore. (Incidentally, we also had the next two right as well - Justin Blackmon and Denard Robinson - though that may be a lucky hit, given the small statistical sample.)

We projected Cam Newton with 2325 points and 83.7% of the points possible - and he landed just short of that, 2263 points and 81.5%. (As with Troy Smith in 2006, the heavy assumption of a landslide led to a reduced number of voters willing to go public with a contrary viewpoint.)

A huge thanks to everyone that helped: our tipsters and members of the media who were willing to share their vote with the public. Our projection and the final numbers are below.

Our final projection - and the actual results

Final update: 12/11/2010, 2:08 p.m. Pacific. 217 ballots, 590 votes.

namefirstsecondthirdballotspointsProj%ActualActual %
C Newton1886519958183.7%226381.5%
A Luck13644912621631.9%107938.8%
L James3674511518827.3%91633.0%
K Moore533316911217.3%63522.9%

J Blackmon181322324.1%1053.8%
D Robinson25916253.7%843.0%
R Mallett015671.0%411.5%
C Kaepernick016781.1%311.1%
A Dalton003330.4%301.1%
O Marecic110250.6%160.6%

T Taylor003330.4%  
P Peterson013450.4%  
R Kerrigan003330.5%  
T Pryor002220.3%  
M Lattimore011230.4%  
J Todman001110.2%  
DQ Bowers001110.2%  
M Leshoure001110.1%  
N Fairley002220.2%  
M Herzlich001110.1%  
R Cobb001110.2%  
N Solder010120.1%  
R Griffin001110.1%  
S Acho001110.1%  
C Harris001110.1%  

Have you heard an official voter declare their vote? Post your voter tips on

View the complete list of the 600+ official Heisman voters that we know about.
Or check out The Big Chart, every single official Heisman vote that we've found this year.

Got questions? Read more about our methodology, and the results from 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009.