StiffArmTrophy.com

Congrats to Sam Bradford!

Congratulations to the 2008 winner of the H------ Trophy, Sam Bradford of Oklahoma.

Here's the numbers:

1726 pts - Sam Bradford
1604 pts - Colt McCoy
1575 pts - Tim Tebow
213 pts - Graham Harrell
116 pts - Michael Crabtree
65 pts - Shonn Greene
19 pts - Pat White

We'll have a complete analysis of our numbers and the final results later this weekend.

Kari Chisholm | December 13, 2008 | Comment on This Post (49 so far) Permalink: Congrats to Sam Bradford! | TrackBack (0)

Notes from the Ceremony

• Chris Fowler said there were 904 ballots returned this year - "a record number returned". Personally, I don't understand why you'd be a H------ Trophy voter and then fail to vote.

• Also, he noted that two-thirds of the ballots had all three finalists in some particular order. Of the 211 ballots we had that had all three spots filled out, 164 had the three finalists and no one else -- roughly 77%.

• Damn, Pete Dawkins is the man.

• Tim Tebow for President? Yes, even though he was born in the Philippines, with American parents, he's still eligible as a "natural-born citizen". Just like John McCain.
  

Kari Chisholm | December 13, 2008 | Comment on This Post (5 so far) Permalink: Notes from the Ceremony | TrackBack (0)

Memo to the media: The Downtown Athletic Club is gone

One thing I've noticed as I've been reading article after article after article about the H------ Trophy race this year: Lots of reporters keep referring to the Downtown Athletic Club as the site of today's trophy presentation.

For example...

Kansas City Star: "Texas Tech coach Mike Leach had some rather unkind words for the Downtown Athletic Club members, who declined..."

Orlando Sentinel: "The other two finalists, decided upon by the Downtown Athletic Club of New York, are..."

San Antonio Express-News: "On Saturday evening, Texas quarterback Colt McCoy will put on a tailored suit and make his way to Manhattan’s Downtown Athletic Club..."

KSBI-TV: "Bradford will be joined at the Downtown Athletic Club in New York City by Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow...."

People, listen up: The Downtown Athletic Club suffered massive damage in the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001 and never re-opened. After the attack, the club filed for bankruptcy in 2002.

Since then, the Trophy has been administered by the H------ Memorial Trophy Trust, and starting tonight (maybe next year?), the ceremony will be held at the the Trophy's new home - the Sports Museum of America.

So, unless you're talking about history, stop referring to the Downtown Athletic Club, OK?

Update: The ceremony was, once again, at the Nokia Theater in Times Square (still not the Downtown Athletic Club) - contradicting the Sports Museum's website:

At the center of the gallery, visitors will be able to admire and touch the original Heisman Trophy, and can cast their votes for the next Heisman winner, who will be awarded the trophy at the Sports Museum of America each December starting in 2008.

Kari Chisholm | December 13, 2008 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) Permalink: Memo to the media: The Downtown Athletic Club is gone | TrackBack (0)

Compiling the other projections

Note: This post updated to include one more major national poll - the CBS Sports poll.

In addition to StiffArmTrophy.com, there are six other major polls of H------ Trophy voters out there. Two of them, the Scripps-Howard/Rocky Mountain News poll and the HeismanPundit.com/Orlando Sentinel poll, are season-long polls of ten voters each. Four polls are one-off polls of much larger numbers of voters - the CBS Sports (32 voters), Tulsa World (55 voters), the Gainesville Sun (95 voters), and the Oklahoman (100 voters).

The Tulsa World and the Oklahoman called it Bradford/McCoy/Tebow. The Gainesville Sun has a tie between Tebow and Bradford, with McCoy third. CBS Sports has it Tebow/Bradford/McCoy. The HeismanPundit.com poll has it Bradford/Tebow/McCoy. And Scripps-Howard, which has been right 18 of the last 22 years, has it McCoy/Bradford/Tebow.

Taking a page from the world of politics, I thought it would be helpful and interesting to combine all six polls into a single large meta-sample. (See pollster.com for how it's done in politics.)

First, three caveats: #1. The two season-long polls use a different scoring system (5-4-3-2-1), and don't release the individual votes, so I attempted to backward-engineer the complete vote tables. I may have gotten 'em slightly off, but since they're just 20 votes out of 270, it probably doesn't matter much. #2. It's entirely likely that some individual voters might appear in several of these polls, causing their preferences to be overweighted. Nothing to be done about that. #3. We are, of course, trusting that each of these polls used a uniform sample that's designed to be representative of the six regions.

OK, with the disclaimers out of the way, here's what I found:

poll	Bradford	Tebow	McCoy
Tulsa World	120	98	100
Oklahoman	226	164	172
Gainesville Sun	194	194	153
Orlando Sentinel / HeismanPundit.com	24	18	16
Scripps Howard	21	14	22
CBS Sports	62	69	55
COMBINED	647 (71%)	557 (61%)	518 (57%)

Interestingly enough, while NONE of the four big polls had it Bradford #1, Tebow #2, and McCoy #3, that's how the combined numbers came out... just like the StiffArmTrophy.com analysis. (And the Orlando Sentinel / HeismanPundit.com poll.)

Kari Chisholm | December 13, 2008 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) Permalink: Compiling the other projections | TrackBack (0)

Houston Chronicle features our analysis: it's #2 votes that matter most

Based on an interview from a couple days ago, the Houston Chronicle has a rundown of the race to the finish line in this year's H------ Trophy race.

“For the first time in a while, there’s going to be some actual suspense,” said Kari Chisholm, the publisher of the Heisman-tracking Web site StiffArmTrophy.com. ...

“It’s a close three-way (race). That’s what makes it really interesting,” said Chisholm, a Portland, Ore.-based political consultant who has correctly picked the past six Heisman winners. “And two of the candidates are from the same region.”

With Bradford and McCoy coming out of the Big 12, the two quarterbacks could split the vote in the Southwest, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri and New Mexico. There are six regions and 926 voters — media members and past Heisman winners — who make up the Heisman electorate.

Tebow lost the Southwest to Arkansas’ Darren McFadden last year but won by 254 points thanks to capturing the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Far West regions.

With no clear favorite, all three finalists could receive 200 first-place votes, similar to the 1995 race when George (268), Frazier (218) and Danny Wuerffel (185) almost accomplished the feat, according to HeismanPundit.com publisher Chris Huston.

The difference in the race could be swing states such as California. There are several regions up for grabs (Far West, Midwest and Northeast) with no candidates from those areas.

“Those swing regions are going to figure out who wins this thing,” Chisholm said.

In tracking of 195 official voters Friday, StiffArmTrophy.com has Tebow with 74 first-place votes, followed by Bradford (62) and McCoy (55). But that gives Tebow only a slight edge with Bradford or McCoy keeping pace with a high concentration of second-place votes.

“Every vote is counting,” Chisholm said. “If this race was just about first-place votes, Tim Tebow is a big winner. But second-place votes are driving this thing.”

Kari Chisholm | December 13, 2008 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) Permalink: Houston Chronicle features our analysis: it's #2 votes that matter most | TrackBack (0)

Bradford and McCoy splitting votes? No, it's the Bradford/McCoy alliance that's hurting Tebow.

There's been a lot of chatter out there about how Tim Tebow is surely going to win the Trophy this year because the voters in the Southwest - which includes both Texas and Oklahoma - are going to split their votes between Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy.

For example, Gregg Doyel at CBS Sports:

Votes are in, and voters vote for what they see. It's as innocent, and as guilty, as that. And voters in the South have seen a full dosage of Tim Tebow of Florida. Voters in Middle America and westward have seen equal parts of Texas' Colt McCoy, Oklahoma's Sam Bradford and Texas Tech's Graham Harrell. So you watch -- that trio of Big 12 quarterbacks will divvy up all those votes west of the Mississippi.

When the results are announced Saturday, Tebow will have carried the South -- and that will carry him to the Heisman. This isn't a prediction. This is a lock.

Well, my sportswriter friends, leave the political analysis to the professionals. (i.e. yours truly.)

If the H------ Trophy vote were a single-vote election - like the presidential election - then you'd be right. As our declared-voter analysis has consistently shown, Tim Tebow will wind up with the most #1 votes.

But it's not. Rather, the Trophy vote is a ranked-choice vote - where the #1 vote scores three points, the #2 vote scores two points, and the #3 vote scores one point. Put another way, a #2 vote is worth 66.6% of a #1 vote.

The purpose of this kind of voting system is precisely to prevent the kind of regional voting - homer-ism - that tends to plague these things.

Sure, there's always guys who vote a ballot that's all homers, but that's unusual. Instead, usually you get the plausible homer vote in first place, and then two top candidates in the next two. (Or, sometimes, two plausible candidates in the top two, and a homer underdog in the third spot.)

But this year, with two plausible candidates from the Southwest, we're seeing lots of ballots with BOTH of them in the top two spots - Bradford/McCoy or McCoy/Bradford - pushing Tim Tebow down to the #3 spot on those ballots... which is hurting Tebow outside his home region.

Ignoring ballots with only a single vote or with a non-finalist in the top two spots, a quick analysis of the 202 ballots we've seen that have finalists in the top two spots reveals:

• Of the 63 ballots with Bradford #1, 36 (57%) have McCoy #2.
• Of the 62 ballots with McCoy #1, 44 (71%) have Bradford #2.
• Of the 77 ballots with Tebow #1, 45 (58%) have Bradford #2 and 32 (42%) have McCoy #2.
• That's 80 ballots that were either Bradford/McCoy or McCoy/Bradford - and just 45 ballots that were either Bradford/Tebow or McCoy/Tebow.
• Put another way: 152 ballots have Bradford in one of the top two spots, 130 ballots have McCoy at #1 or #2, and just 122 ballots have Tebow in the top two.

Ultimately, when the story of this Trophy campaign is written, it'll be the #2 votes for Sam Bradford that made the difference. And far from splitting the vote, it's a Bradford/McCoy alliance pushing Tebow to #3 - that's defining the outcome.

Kari Chisholm | December 13, 2008 | Comment on This Post (23 so far) Permalink: Bradford and McCoy splitting votes? No, it's the Bradford/McCoy alliance that's hurting Tebow. | TrackBack (0)

With 249 ballots, our final projection: Sam Bradford.

Well, this is definitely one of the closest H------ Trophy races in many years. And we're glad that we held out until we got to 249 ballots, tied for the most we've ever had. 249 ballots represents 27% of the total electorate for the Trophy.

We project that Sam Bradford will earn 61% of the total possible points available. He should win by something like 160 points - making it a narrow win, but far from the closest ever. (Not even as close as 2000 or 2001, which were both under a hundred points.)

In our latest projection, Tim Tebow has moved ahead of Colt McCoy for second place -- largely on the strength of so many votes declared by voters outside of the Southwest and South in the final 48 hours. (Tebow now leads in the Northeast and Midwest.) While we're not super-confident that it's Tebow at #2, we are somewhat confident of that outcome.

Here's the regional breakdown in points:

name	Fan	Formers	West	SW	MidW	South	Mid-Atl	NE	Unknown
S Bradford	2	30	37	146	60	72	43	40	36
C McCoy	3	15	34	120	62	74	30	42	33
T Tebow	0	4	30	69	66	140	39	43	37

Kari Chisholm | December 13, 2008 | Comment on This Post (15 so far) Permalink: With 249 ballots, our final projection: Sam Bradford. | TrackBack (0)

Feedback loop

Today, as folks try and figure out which of the candidates are going to win, there's a bunch of stories talking about StiffArmTrophy.com's projection work.

For Sports Illustrated, Stewart Mandel writes:

"So far, 2008 looks to be the closest Heisman race since the one between Eric Crouch and Rex Grossman in 2001," said Kari Chisholm, a political consultant in Oregon and who runs the Web site StiffArmTrophy.com. "But it's even more interesting, since it's a three-way race -- which may make it the closest race of all time."

Over the past six years, Chisholm's site has correctly projected the winner every single time, and, even more impressively, come within about 2.5 percent each year of nailing the winner's vote total. He does it by contacting as many actual Heisman voters as possible (last year: 249), finding out how they voted, then weighting the collected ballots based on how many of them come from each of the six Heisman voting regions.

How close is this year's race? As of Thursday afternoon, Chisholm had attained 195 ballots (there are 926 registered voters), of which Tebow had received 74 first-place votes, Bradford 62 and McCoy 55. However, because a disproportionate number of his collected ballots had come from the South (where Tebow is dominating), and because Tebow had received far fewer second-place votes (31) than either Bradford (69) or McCoy (58), Chisholm's projected finish (which could change as more votes are collected) was:

1) Bradford (1,687 points)
2) McCoy (1,516)
3) Tebow (1,446)

If those numbers hold up, it will mark the third-closest margin between No. 1 and No. 3 in the past 50 years. But with plenty more ballots still to collect, and with the known "margin of error," Chisholm had yet to officially project a winner.

On the jump, the Sun-Sentinel, the Oregonian, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch all talk about StiffArmTrophy.com.

Continue reading "Feedback loop"

Kari Chisholm | December 12, 2008 | Comment on This Post (36 so far) Permalink: Feedback loop | TrackBack (0)

213 ballots: Bradford holding steady at 60%

Well, we're now up to 213 ballots declared - that's 23% of the total vote.*

Sam Bradford is holding steady at 60%, while Tim Tebow has edged a bit closer to Colt McCoy. (Again the percentages are a percentage-of-unanimous. A unananimous #1 pick would get 2778 points.)

There's been a lot interest in the idea that we've got a big regional vote going on this year. (Actually, it's not that atypical.) Here's the regional breakdown so far:

name	Fan	Formers	West	SW	MidW	South	Mid-Atl	NE	Unknown
S Bradford	2	21	32	133	45	63	40	38	22
C McCoy	3	11	32	111	53	65	30	36	24
T Tebow	0	1	22	64	53	128	37	36	25

* Note: I've heard some reports that voter turnout is usually around 85%, which would mean that we've got around 27% of the actual vote. Though I've also heard that voter turnout has moved up since they went to online balloting (and bugging the voters with daily emails.)

Kari Chisholm | December 12, 2008 | Comment on This Post (31 so far) Permalink: 213 ballots: Bradford holding steady at 60% | TrackBack (0)

Back at it.

Well, folks, shortly after my last update yesterday, I got really, really sick. Both my wife and I were puking violently all night long and throughout the morning. Some kinda serious bug going around here.

In any case, I'm back at it. Next update should be in an hour or so, when I run through all the latest tips and stories out there.

Thanks for hanging in there and being patient. As I've said all along, this one is close enough that I think we'll be making our final projection Saturday morning based on all the Saturday coverage.

Kari Chisholm | December 12, 2008 | Comment on This Post (17 so far) Permalink: Back at it. | TrackBack (0)

195 ballots: holding steady, too close to call

We're now up to 195 ballots tracked down. Sam Bradford is holding steady, while Colt McCoy is extending his lead ever-so-slightly over Tim Tebow. As we climb past 200 ballots, we'll feel more comfortable with making a call for Sam Bradford, though I'm not sure we'll ever be certain about the #2 and #3 spots.

We'll update momentarily with the regional breakdowns and some other interesting tidbits.

Kari Chisholm | December 11, 2008 | Comment on This Post (59 so far) Permalink: 195 ballots: holding steady, too close to call | TrackBack (0)

About that Berry Tramel thing

So, over at the Oklahoman's website, Berry Tramel is claiming that Stiff Arm Trophy "is a fraud" because he's listed as a voter here - even though he gave up his vote years ago.

Our bad.

As regular readers know here, we rely on published votes, direct email correspondence with voters, and tips of on-air declarations from our readers.

Why is Berry Tramel on our list? Because on December 8th, one of our readers ("Jordan") posted the following:

Barry Trammel of the Daily Oklahoman said today on WWLS the Sports Animal in OKC that he voted for Sam Bradford 1, Tebow 2, McCoy 3.

Well, it looks like that was a mistaken impression of what he said. Sorry, Berry.

In our next update, we'll be taking him out.

Do know this: reader tips of local broadcast declarations are a tiny part of our mix. I'm quite confident that our system is working just fine.

Kari Chisholm | December 11, 2008 | Comment on This Post (36 so far) Permalink: About that Berry Tramel thing | TrackBack (0)

Whatever you do, don't listen to Tim Tebow

From the Florida Times-Union:

"I talked to Danny [Wuerffel] and coach [Steve] Spurrier and some of those guys and listened to what they said," Tebow told the Times-Union in a phone interview Wednesday afternoon. "Their advice was to keep your vote quiet and don't tell anybody. There's always going to be people asking who you voted for and stuff. If you decline it [requests for his ballot], it'll make things easier."

Of course, that'll make things like StiffArmTrophy.com impossible. And what's the fun in that?

Seriously, Tim (and all you other voters out there), if you want to include your vote here - but stay anonymous - we can do that.

Kari Chisholm | December 11, 2008 | Comment on This Post (29 so far) Permalink: Whatever you do, don't listen to Tim Tebow | TrackBack (0)

180 ballots: McCoy surge moves him ahead of Tebow

Well, it's 4 a.m. over here on the West Coast, and our latest update has 180 ballots with 478 votes.

In this latest batch, Colt McCoy had a bit of a surge - and he's now barely ahead of Tim Tebow (by 0.3%) in our vote projection (though still behind in the hard count.)

Amazingly, Tebow has recorded the most first-place votes - though he's in second in the hard count, and in third in the projection.

180 ballots is more than we've had in three previous years - but we're still not quite confident enough to lock in this projection. A lot of the back-and-forth movement has come from big chunks of home state votes. For example, we've got three times as many votes in the Southwest and in the South regions than we do in the Far West and Northeast regions -- and the outcomes in those underreported regions are very, very close.

Kari Chisholm | December 11, 2008 | Comment on This Post (27 so far) Permalink: 180 ballots: McCoy surge moves him ahead of Tebow | TrackBack (0)

165 ballots: Bradford extends lead, still too close to call

With our evening update, mostly via email correspondence with official voters and tips from our loyal (and patient) readers, we're now up to 165 ballots.

Sam Bradford has extended his lead, with a projected vote total of 60% of the maximum possible; while Tim Tebow has slipped slightly to 55% and Colt McCoy gained slightly to 52%.

For the the first time, Bradford has taken a lead in the hard count (not just the regionally-adjusted projection), with 300 points to Tebow's 294 and McCoy's 263.

In terms of the regional breakdown, Tebow continues to lead strongly in the South and narrowly in the Midwest - while coming in second in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and third in the West and Southwest. Bradford has a solid lead in the Southwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast; is narrowly in second in the West, and is in third in the Midwest and South. McCoy is leading narrowly in the West, is barely in second in the South and Midwest, solidly in second in the Southwest, and is in third in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. (Phew!)

Stay tuned. Another update shortly.

Kari Chisholm | December 11, 2008 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) Permalink: 165 ballots: Bradford extends lead, still too close to call | TrackBack (0)

Three more polls: Two for Bradford, one tied

The Tulsa World has polled 55 official H------ voters and found a slight lead for Sam Bradford.

Using the same point system as the Heisman Trophy (three points for a first-place vote, two for a second-place vote, and one for a third-place vote), Bradford received 22 first-place votes and finished with 120 points. The OU quarterback was named on 52 of the 55 ballots.

McCoy was second with 100 points and Tebow was a close third with 98 points. McCoy received fewer first-place votes (14) than Tebow (19), but the Texas quarterback was named on more ballots (53) than the reigning Heisman winner (50).

The Oklahoman also did their own poll of 100 official voters:

The winner: Sam Bradford.

The Oklahoma quarterback received 47 first-place votes and 226 points, beating out Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow. The Texas quarterback had 20 first-place votes and 172 points, while the Florida quarterback had 31 first-place votes and 164 points.

And in the battle of hometown papers, the Gainesville Sun polled 98 official voters and came up with a dead heat between Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford:

In a confidential poll, The Sun contacted 98 Heisman voters from across the six different voting regions (South, Southwest, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, Midwest and West) who agreed to tell us who they voted for. In the official Heisman balloting, first-place votes count for three points, second-place for two and third for one.

Using the same point system, Tebow and Bradford are tied with 194 points in The Sun's poll. Tebow received 44 first-place votes to Bradford's 26, with Bradford collecting more second and third-place votes. McCoy received 27 first-place votes and finished with 153 points.

Given that there are more than 900 Heisman voters nationwide, there is an obvious margin of error.

But the poll seems to indicate this could be one of the closest Heisman races in recent years. And that it's clearly a three-player race, withTebow and Bradford holding a slight edge on McCoy.

In The Sun's poll, Tebow received overwhelming support from his region (South), while Bradford basically split the vote with McCoy in his (Southwest). In the South,Tebow collected 18 of 20 first-place votes and 57 points, while Bradford received no first-place votes and 28 points.

Meanwhile, over at the Wall Street Journal's "Numbers Guy" blog, Carl Bialik is taking note of all the confusion -- and specifically notes Stiff Arm Trophy.

“I’ve been working on this thing for about 15 years, and it’s the closest I’ve seen it on the final poll,” said John Lindsay, sports editor of Scripps Howard, whose poll showed McCoy ahead with 42 points, Bradford in second with 41 and Tebow holding 34 points. ...

Votes for the Heisman, like those for political candidates, aren’t always logical. Chisholm said that the early ballots he collects tend to favor underdogs and regional favorites. In some years, these come in even before the regular season is over, but this year, with Tebow and Bradford both active on Saturday, nearly all votes were placed this week. ...

Chisholm acknowledged he was nervous about the balloting. “This will be the year that proves whether my method is a good one,” he said. “There’s not a whole lot to be gained by projecting a landslide.”

We'll keep working on our projection here, but I guess we'll all just have to watch on Saturday night -- something that I'm sure ESPN and the H------ Trust are very happy about.

Kari Chisholm | December 11, 2008 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) Permalink: Three more polls: Two for Bradford, one tied | TrackBack (0)

146 ballots: still too close to call

Well, we've got another 30 ballots or so - and things are getting closer, not clearer. Sam Bradford retains his lead, but it's shrinking, with both Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy picking up more votes.

We continue to have more votes recorded for Tim Tebow, but they're so heavily concentrated in the South region that Bradford is continuing to show a higher overall projection based on his strength nationwide.

Here's the regional breakdown of points (not votes) for the top three candidates:

name	Fan	Formers	West	SW	MidW	South	Mid-Atl	NE	Unknown
S Bradford	2	15	18	73	19	50	25	33	17
T Tebow	0	0	15	41	30	106	21	31	24
C McCoy	3	9	18	54	29	53	14	26	21

We'll have another update tonight.

One more thing: A few folks have asked about the projection percentages -- how can they all be above 50%? The answer is in the voting process. Each voter gets three ranked votes (#1, #2, #3). First place votes count for three points, second place is two points, third place is one point.

So, each voter has six points -- but the maximum any candidate can get is three. So, if you were a unanimous #1 pick, you'd get 50% of the points available.

That reads a little funny, so a couple years back, we changed how we calculate percentages. Rather than percentage-of-all-points, we show you percentage-of-unanimous. A perfect score, as a unanimous #1 pick, would be 100%. A unanimous #2 pick would have a 66.6% vote, and a unananimous #3 pick would have a 33.3% vote.

For example: in 2007, Tim Tebow got 70%, Darren McFadden got 61%, Colt Brennan got 23%, and Chase Daniel got 15%. Reggie Bush and Troy Smith are the top two H------ Trophy winners of all time, with 91.8% and 91.6% of the vote, respectively.

Kari Chisholm | December 10, 2008 | Comment on This Post (8 so far) Permalink: 146 ballots: still too close to call | TrackBack (0)

Other projections? Bradford 2, Tebow 1, McCoy 1

There's a bunch of folks getting into the H------ Trophy prognostication thing. Nobody has as big a sample as we do, but hey, the more the merrier. Here's a rundown:

• The HeismanPundit.com/Orlando Sentinel poll has ten voters participating - and shows Sam Bradford narrowly edging out Tim Tebow.
• Rivals.com has a poll that includes seven voters. Same story: Bradford narrowly ahead of Tebow.
• The granddaddy of the them all, the Rocky Mountain News poll, has ten voters who've selected Colt McCoy over Sam Bradford by the tiniest of margins.
• CBS Sports surveyed 32 voters, and has Tim Tebow with a small lead over Sam Bradford.
• The Palm Beach Post talked to 15 voters, and while they didn't calculate a winner, they found some strong regional variations.

So, there you have it. A split decision.

Kari Chisholm | December 10, 2008 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) Permalink: Other projections? Bradford 2, Tebow 1, McCoy 1 | TrackBack (0)

117 ballots, and it's a barnburner

Well, we've got a huge update - with over 50 additional ballots just in the last few hours. But it's going to take a lot more ballots to get a solid projection.

If you're looking closely at our numbers, you'll note that we've got more votes for Tim Tebow than we do for Sam Bradford. So, why is Bradford leading in our projection? It's all about the regional breakdown. We're seeing lots of excited Tebow supporters in the Southeast, but Bradford is picking up support across multiple regions. There's fewer of those ballots, but if you assume that the "quiet ballots" that we don't know about are roughly similar to the ones we do know about from the same region, well, then Bradford is doing slightly better.

But don't count Colt McCoy out yet. He's just barely behind Tebow -- and at this point, any of the three QBs could win this thing.

Kari Chisholm | December 10, 2008 | Comment on This Post (6 so far) Permalink: 117 ballots, and it's a barnburner | TrackBack (0)

63 ballots: Still very close...

Well, in our early-morning Tuesday update, we're now up to 63 ballots - and Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford are still very, very close, with Colt McCoy right behind.

We're also now seeing the appearance of wide receivers Michael Crabtree and Percy Harvin for the first time.

I'm traveling home today from Los Angeles (where I was at the USC/UCLA game), so updates will be sporadic mid-day -- but sending out an email to a bunch of voters right now, so expect a big bump tonight.

Oh, and we've now posted our Big Chart on every vote that we've found. Let us know if we've missed any!

Kari Chisholm | December 9, 2008 | Comment on This Post (37 so far) Permalink: 63 ballots: Still very close... | TrackBack (0)

Final Rocky Mountain Poll: Colt McCoy, barely.

The Rocky Mountain News has released the final edition of its poll - and it's close:

As a precursor to what might be among the tightest national balloting ever to determine the winner of college football's most prestigious national award, 10 Rocky panelists with Heisman Trophy votes - two voters from each region of the country - labored to select Texas quarterback Colt McCoy as their 2008 winner.

McCoy received 42 points, Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford received 41 and Florida quarterback Tim Tebow, the 2007 Heisman winner, received 34.

How good is their poll? Pretty damn good:

The Rocky Mountain News' Heisman Trophy poll, in its 22nd year, is the longest-running weekly Heisman ranking in the country. This is the final vote of the year, with the winner being announced Saturday. The final Rocky poll has correctly picked the Heisman winner in 18 of the previous 21 seasons.

We'll see.

Kari Chisholm | December 9, 2008 | Comment on This Post (8 so far) Permalink: Final Rocky Mountain Poll: Colt McCoy, barely. | TrackBack (0)

Should Tebow vote for himself? Should he vote at all?

The Florida Times-Union has a great story about the deliberations that Tim Tebow is going through -- including the possibility that he may not vote at all:

The most logical decision is voting for himself, which is something he said he hasn't ruled out, but isn't all that comfortable with, either.

"It kind of does feel a little weird, you know?" he said. ...

Tebow will agonize over his ballot because he doesn't want to get it wrong and doesn't want to appear arrogant or egotistical, offensive coordinator Dan Mullen said. He treats the responsibility as an honor.

"It's a prestigious thing and I think he has a lot of respect for the award and the Heisman Trust and being a part of the whole thing," Mullen said. "It's a real big deal for Tim and I think he'll be serious about it."

". . . I know Tim takes great pride in it and takes great responsibility in the fact that he does have a vote."

The last guy put in this position was USC QB Matt Leinart:

Former Southern California quarterback Matt Leinart was a somewhat similar position to Tebow after he won the Heisman Trophy as a junior in 2004.

The following year, Leinart, who now plays for the NFL's Arizona Cardinals, voted for teammate Reggie Bush, who won the Heisman by a comfortable margin.

Kari Chisholm | December 9, 2008 | Comment on This Post (5 so far) Permalink: Should Tebow vote for himself? Should he vote at all? | TrackBack (0)

Bradford moves ahead; McCoy drops to #3

Well, as we warned you, the early numbers weren't solid. Over the last twelve hours, we've doubled the number of ballots - and the numbers are shifting dramatically.

We've now got Oklahoma's Sam Bradford leading, and Florida's Tim Tebow in second place, but it's a very, very close race. (I'll do the numbers later this week, but I suspect it's the closest race since we started this madness in 2002. This ain't no Reggie Bush landslide.)

Our earliest numbers had McCoy ahead, but Bradford with the most first-place votes. Now we've got Bradford ahead, but Tebow with a slight lead in first-places votes.

Keep in mind that the early declarations tend to come from local partisans of particular candidates - lots of Texas voters for McCoy, Florida voters for Tebow, etc. As ballots roll in from around the country, we'll get a richer view of the outcome.

Kari Chisholm | December 8, 2008 | Comment on This Post (8 so far) Permalink: Bradford moves ahead; McCoy drops to #3 | TrackBack (0)

2008 Trash Talk (open thread)

OK, if you want to promote your favorite Trophy candidate - or trash talk someone else's -- do it right here. Anything violent, racist, or otherwise uncool will be deleted. Run-of-the-mill idiocy will be allowed.

If you have official voter tips, post 'em over here.

Kari Chisholm | December 7, 2008 | Comment on This Post (281 so far) Permalink: 2008 Trash Talk (open thread) | TrackBack (0)

2008 Voter Tips

Use this space to post tips about official Stiff Arm Trophy voters that have declared their votes. If possible, give us a link to a web page where it's printed -- or at least tell us where on the air you heard it.

We can't do this without you. Thanks!

Kari Chisholm | December 7, 2008 | Comment on This Post (509 so far) Permalink: 2008 Voter Tips | TrackBack (0)

Stiff Arm 2008: Coming right up...

Yes, yes, yes... stop with the emails and phone calls. Yes, we are doing our H------ Trophy projection this year.

It seems that all the speculation and prognostication is getting off to a later start this year, probably because of the crazy race to the finish in the BCS - and all the implications the conference championship games have had for the Trophy race.

Questions we'll be watching this week: Has Tim Tebow done enough to convince voters that he should be the second person ever to repeat - and set himself up as a possible triple winner? Or has Oklahoma's explosive offense convinced voters to send the trophy home with Sam Bradford? Will voters look kindly on Colt McCoy or Graham Harrell - the QBs of the two programs left out in the cold by the silly Big 12 tiebreaker system? In this age of video-game passing offenses, is the era of the Stiff Arm running back over and dead?

Ballots are out, the games are over. All that's left is the shouting.

Stay tuned. It's going to be a wild week.

Kari Chisholm | December 7, 2008 | Comment on This Post (16 so far) Permalink: Stiff Arm 2008: Coming right up... | TrackBack (0)

View Previous Updates

The H------ Memorial Trophy is a registered trademark of the H------ Memorial Trophy Trust. This site is not affiliated with the Trust, not even a little. We're not even using the H------ word, since they don't want us to. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Copyright to and responsibility for all posts and comments are owned by their respective authors.

Obviously, the posts and comments here are the views of their authors, and not of anyone else.

While we're strong believers in free speech, we reserve the right to delete comment spam or other offensive material. Our contributors, however, reserve the right to embarass themselves in public.