Stiff Arm Trophy

Heisman Projection: Final, 231 ballots

Posted by Kari Chisholm on December 10, 2011 in News.

Overnight, we added a bunch of ballots - and we're now up to 231 ballots (with 641 votes), though nothing's really changed since we made our official projection yesterday. Robert Griffin III is going to win the Heisman Trophy.

This is our final hard-numbers projection - our attempt to not only pick the winner, but also the order of finish and total vote. After applying a slight adjustment to the projection chart below (to account for bias introduced by a large number of 1st-place only declarations for RG3), here's how we think it's going to shake out:

Griffin wins with 2148 points, or 77% of a perfect unanimous #1 selection. Luck gets 2nd with 1388 points, or 50%. Richardson is 3rd with 799 points, or 29%. Ball is 4th, with 475 points, or 17%. And Mathieu is 5th, with 430 points, or 15%.

Griffin will win all six regions, while Luck will place 2nd in every region but the South (where Richardson will be 2nd.) Ball will be 3rd in the Southwest and Midwest, while Matt Barkley will be 3rd in the West.

Huge thanks go out to all of the tipsters that have been vote-spotting for us all across the country - and sending 'em by twitter, facebook, email, and carrier pigeon. We really can't do this without you. Follow us on Twitter (@stiffarmtrophy) throughout the day - and we'll see you here after the announcement on ESPN at 5 p.m. Pacific, 8 p.m. Eastern.

For the tenth year in a row, we're going to attempt to project the outcome of the greatest individual award in sports, the Heisman Trophy. We've been right nine out of nine years.

But to do this, we need your help. If you read/see/hear someone identify themselves as an official voter (with or without their vote), post a comment on our voter tips line, share a note on our Facebook wall, or send us a note on Twitter (@stiffarmtrophy). If possible, provide a link (or at least tell us where you saw/heard/read it.)

Our latest projection

Last updated: 12/10/2011, 7:00 a.m. Pacific. 231 ballots, 641 votes.

R Griffin1443818200526216677.9%
A Luck466637149307133648.0%
T Richardson2335409817973026.2%
M Ball626447611442515.3%
T Mathieu42635659937713.6%

M Barkley171523321374.9%
R Wilson044812441.6%
B Weeden01456321.2%
L James02135271.0%
K Moore00555250.9%
C Keenum00333110.4%
L Kuechly01123100.4%
D Robinson0011170.3%
C Klein0022260.2%
J Blackmon0011130.1%

Got questions? Something look funny? Get answers and read about our methodology.

Have you heard an official voter declare their vote? Post your voter tips on

View the complete list of the 700+ official Heisman voters that we know about.
Or check out The Big Chart, every single official Heisman vote that we've found this year.

Got questions? Read more about our methodology, and the results from 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010.