Stiff Arm Trophy

We did it! Eleven years in a row.

Posted on December 10, 2012 in News.

For the eleventh year in a row, we've correctly projected the winner of the Heisman Trophy. Congratulations to Johnny Manziel and everyone in Aggieland!

We're also proud to note that for the eighth out of those eleven years, we were once again able to correctly project the order of the finalists -- Manziel, Mani Te'o, and Collin Klein. (Incidentally, we also had the next two right as well - Marqise Lee and Braxton Miller.)

We projected Manziel with 2263 points - 81.3% of those possible. He fell a bit short of that, 2029 points and 72.9% possible. That point total makes Manziel the #10 all-time top Heisman Trophy winner.

We projected Te'o with 1602 points and 57.5% - and he got 1706 and 61.3%. And we projected Klein with 942 points and 33.8% - which was almost dead-on at 894 points and 32.1%.

Part of the gap may be undervote in the Heisman electorate. While the Heisman Trust doesn't consistently report how many ballots were returned, there were 892 first-place votes in the top-ten reported (vs. 928 voters).

The gap may also be a similar effect we saw in 2010 with Cam Newton and in 2006 with Troy Smith - wherein the landslide caused a smaller number of voters to report contrary viewpoints.

We also saw the fewest number of voters willing to go public by name with their ballots since our very first year. Our projection held up, however, since we were able to accumulate a large number of anonymous ballots - either by folding in other surveys or directly speaking with voters. We'll be exploring our options for 2013 and beyond.

But enough of all that. Congrats to the first redshirt freshman to win the Heisman Trophy, Johnny "Football" Manziel!

And a huge thanks to everyone that helped: our tipsters and members of the media who were willing to share their vote with the public. Our projection and the final numbers are below.

Our final projection - and the actual results

Last updated: 12/8/2012 11:35 a.m. Pacific. 205 ballots, 536 votes.

namefirstsecondthirdballotspointsProj%ActualActual %
J Manziel120362518145781.3%202972.9%
M Te'o57741614733557.5%170661.3%
C Klein12397612719033.8%89432.1%

M Lee431825366.6%2077.4%
B Miller151420274.2%1445.2%
J Clowney013450.9%612.2%
J Lynch1269132.1%521.9%
T Austin004440.7%471.7%
K Barner001110.2%421.5%
J Jones005550.8%411.5%

M Ball102350.8%  
A McCarron002220.4%  
B Jones011230.4%  
L Jones001110.4%  
M Mariota011230.4%  
S Taylor001110.2%  
K Carey001110.2%  
B Rambo001110.1%  

Got questions? Something look funny? Get answers and read about our methodology.

Have you heard an official voter declare their vote? Post your voter tips on

View the complete list of the 700+ official Heisman voters that we know about.
Or check out The Big Chart, every single official Heisman vote that we've found this year.

Got questions? Read more about our methodology, and the results from 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011.