Stiff Arm Trophy

Heisman Projection: Final numbers, with 205 ballots

Posted on December 8, 2012 in News.

We made our final projection yesterday morning, with 180 ballots, and though we're now up to 205 ballots, the numbers haven't changed.

It's Manziel with 81% of the points possible - 81% of the way toward a unanimous first-place selection. That number may be slightly inflated, but regardless, he'll likely finish somewhere in the top six or seven biggest Heisman winners ever - somewhere between Desmond Howard and Cam Newton. (Lots more historical Heisman stats here.)

Congrats to Johnny Manziel and everyone in Aggieland. Manziel, Te'o, Klein - in that order. (And while we don't typically project outside the finalist list, we're fairly confident the next three will be Marqise Lee, Braxton Miller, and Jordan Lynch, in that order.)

In terms of regional balloting, we're confident that Manziel will win in all six regions. Manti T'eo will place second in at least five - and we've got a dead heat in the Southwest region between Te'o and Klein for 2nd.

For the eleventh year in a row, we're going to attempt to project the outcome of the greatest individual award in sports, the Heisman Trophy. So far, we've been right ten out of ten years.

But to do this, we need your help. If you read/see/hear someone identify themselves as an official voter (with or without their vote), post a comment on our voter tips line, share a note on our Facebook wall, or send us a note on Twitter (@stiffarmtrophy). If possible, provide a link (or at least tell us where you saw/heard/read it.)

Our final projection

Last updated: 12/8/2012 11:35 a.m. Pacific. 205 ballots, 536 votes.

J Manziel1203625181457226381.3%
M Te'o577416147335160257.5%
C Klein12397612719094233.8%

M Lee431825361846.6%
B Miller151420271184.2%
J Lynch126913592.1%
J Clowney01345260.9%
J Jones00555210.8%
M Ball10235210.8%
T Austin00444190.7%
A McCarron00222120.4%
B Jones01123120.4%
L Jones00111120.4%
M Mariota01123110.4%
S Taylor0011160.2%
K Carey0011150.2%
K Barner0011150.2%
B Rambo0011130.1%

Got questions? Something look funny? Get answers and read about our methodology.

Have you heard an official voter declare their vote? Post your voter tips on

View the complete list of the 700+ official Heisman voters that we know about.
Or check out The Big Chart, every single official Heisman vote that we've found this year.

Got questions? Read more about our methodology, and the results from 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011.