Stiff Arm Trophy

Heisman Projection: 104 ballots

Posted on December 4, 2012 in News.

We've got a hefty update for you, folks. In this update, Manti Te'o has improved his standing quite a bit. Of course, as more ballots get declared, the opportunity for him to make up ground gets smaller.

The good folks at USA Today have been doing a weekly Heisman survey of 37 actual voters that work in the Gannett family of newspapers and broadcast outlets. Their final survey is out - and it shows a dead heat between Manziel and Te'o.

Now, when a survey like this is available, we do our best to fold it into the Stiff Arm Trophy projection. In this case, it was fairly easy to deconstruct and slide in. Of course, we only have hard vote declarations from four Gannett voters - so the rest are labeled as simply "Gannett Voter". As some of them declare their ballots, we'll adjust accordingly (which helps a lot, actually, since we're able to fine-tune the regional breakdowns that underpin the big projection.)

Of course, we don't even know all the identities of all the Heisman voters at Gannett. If you can help identify 'em, that would help a lot. Post your tips in this comment thread.

More to come.

For the eleventh year in a row, we're going to attempt to project the outcome of the greatest individual award in sports, the Heisman Trophy. So far, we've been right ten out of ten years.

But to do this, we need your help. If you read/see/hear someone identify themselves as an official voter (with or without their vote), post a comment on our voter tips line, share a note on our Facebook wall, or send us a note on Twitter (@stiffarmtrophy). If possible, provide a link (or at least tell us where you saw/heard/read it.)

Our latest projection

Last updated: 12/4/2012 10:32 a.m. Pacific. 104 ballots, 286 votes.

J Manziel58211796233219278.7%
M Te'o34371081186162858.5%
C Klein5224471103101636.5%

M Lee21710151525.5%
B Miller0369121093.9%
J Lynch02246511.8%
M Ball10235411.5%
J Jones00333250.9%
A McCarron00222240.9%
B Jones01123200.7%
K Carey00111110.4%
S Taylor00111100.4%
B Rambo0011170.3%
T Austin0011170.3%
J Clowney0011160.2%

Got questions? Something look funny? Get answers and read about our methodology.

Have you heard an official voter declare their vote? Post your voter tips on

View the complete list of the 700+ official Heisman voters that we know about.
Or check out The Big Chart, every single official Heisman vote that we've found this year.

Got questions? Read more about our methodology, and the results from 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011.