Stiff Arm Trophy

Heisman Projection: 112 ballots

Posted by Kari Chisholm on December 7, 2010 in News.

We're now up to 112 ballots (with 299 votes). The gap between LaMichael James and Andrew Luck continues to narrow - about a half percentage-point right now.

We've had lots of questions on Twitter and on-air about the voters who are choosing to leave Cam Newton off their ballots. We've got eight voters who've declared ballots that exclude Newton right now - that's just over 7%. Whether that 7% holds up across the entire voter pool, it's hard to know -- good arguments could be made that's low (a big silent group of anti-Newton voters, afraid of backlash) or that it's high (the anti-Newton voters are the ones speaking up).

In any case, here's how those eight votes break down:

  • Andrew Luck: Three #1s, one #2, and two #3s. (13 pts)
  • Kellen Moore: Two #1s and three #2s. (12 pts)
  • LaMichael James: Two #2s and two #3s. (6 pts)
  • Denard Robinson: One #1 and one #3. (4 pts)
  • Justin Blackmon: One #1. (3 pts)
  • Terrelle Pryor: One #3. (1 pt)

And one ballot described as "a protest vote" that featured votes for 1) Stanford FB/LB Owen Marecic, 2) Colorado OL Nate Solder, and 3) Texas DE Sam Acho.

Four are from the South, three from the Midwest, and one from the Mid-Atlantic region. I'm a bit surprised that there aren't any no-Newton voters in the West. One important note: While some of these no-Newton voters have publicly stated their ethical objections, it's also possible that some just believe he's not among the top three football players in the land. (That roar you hear is coming from outraged Auburn Tigers.)

(Note: This post originally left out the "protest vote". All numbers have been updated above.)

For the ninth year in a row, we're going to attempt to project the outcome of the greatest individual award in sports, the Heisman Trophy. We've been right eight out of eight years.

But to do this, we need your help. If you read/see/hear someone identify themselves as an official voter (with or without their vote), post a comment on our voter tips line, share a note on our Facebook wall, or send us a note on Twitter (@stiffarmtrophy). If possible, provide a link (or at least tell us where you saw/heard/read it.)

Our latest projection

Last updated: 12/6/2010, 3:48 p.m. Pacific. 112 ballots, 299 votes.

C Newton9932104305242287.2%
L James137266410379428.6%
A Luck52723559277728.0%
K Moore32013366252819.0%

D Robinson125812863.1%
J Blackmon1361015863.1%
C Kaepernick00444321.2%
T Taylor00333250.9%
R Kerrigan00111170.6%
J Todman00111170.6%
P Peterson01234170.6%
O Marecic10013100.4%
M Leshoure0011180.3%
T Pryor0011180.3%
M Lattimore0101270.3%
N Solder0101270.3%
R Mallett0022270.3%
S Acho0011130.1%
C Harris0011130.1%
N Fairley0011130.1%

Have you heard an official voter declare their vote? Post your voter tips on

View the complete list of the 600+ official Heisman voters that we know about.
Or check out The Big Chart, every single official Heisman vote that we've found this year.

Got questions? Read more about our methodology, and the results from 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009.