Heisman Projection: Monster update, 189 ballots.
Whew! Thanks for your patience everyone. We've now got a monster update with 189 ballots.
The gap between Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck has substantially narrowed. At 141 ballots, there was a projected gap of 1235 points between them. Now, it's 982 points. To be sure, that's still a hefty lead. (In 2010, Luck finished with 1079 points - so if this holds up, he'll have gained ground compared to last year. But that's almost entirely at the expense of the other finalists - as Cam Newton had 2263 points, the same ballpark as this projected total for Griffin.)
Not much change for Trent Richardson, Montee Ball, or Tyrann Mathieu. They're holding steady at 3, 4, and 5. I should also note that we've now seen our first third-place vote for Boston College LB Luke Kuechly (who finished the year with 191 tackles; that's 15.9 tackles per game!)
Once we clear 200, we'll start talking about making the top-line call of the winner. (Our final projection is also a projection about the vote totals - hitting the bullseye, not just the dart board.)
For the tenth year in a row, we're going to attempt to project the outcome of the greatest individual award in sports, the Heisman Trophy. We've been right nine out of nine years.
But to do this, we need your help. If you read/see/hear someone identify themselves as an official voter (with or without their vote), post a comment on our voter tips line, share a note on our Facebook wall, or send us a note on Twitter (@stiffarmtrophy). If possible, provide a link (or at least tell us where you saw/heard/read it.)
Our latest projection
Last updated: 12/7/2011, 6:58 a.m. Pacific. 189 ballots, 509 votes.
| name | first | second | third | ballots | points | Projected | Proj% |
| R Griffin | 118 | 31 | 14 | 163 | 430 | 2244 | 80.7% |
| A Luck | 34 | 50 | 31 | 115 | 233 | 1262 | 45.4% |
| T Richardson | 19 | 26 | 31 | 76 | 140 | 720 | 25.9% |
| M Ball | 5 | 23 | 39 | 67 | 100 | 453 | 16.3% |
| T Mathieu | 3 | 20 | 25 | 48 | 74 | 338 | 12.2% |
| M Barkley | 1 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 25 | 148 | 5.3% |
| R Wilson | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 51 | 1.8% |
| B Weeden | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 1.4% |
| K Moore | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 1.0% |
| L James | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0.6% |
| D Robinson | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0.3% |
| C Keenum | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0.3% |
| C Klein | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0.3% |
| L Kuechly | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.2% |
Got questions? Something look funny? Get answers and read about our methodology.
Have you heard an official voter declare their vote? Post your voter tips on StiffArmTrophy.com
View the complete list of the 600+ official Heisman voters that we know about.
Or check out The Big Chart, every single official Heisman vote that we've found this year.
Got questions? Read more about our methodology, and the results from 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010.