Heisman Projection: 168 ballots. Newton slips, Luck gains.
We're now up to 168 ballots (with 447 votes) - more than 18% of the total vote.
Yesterday, we called it for Cam Newton. At the time, we estimated that he'd get roughly 2400 points, or 86% of the maximum 2778 points available.
This morning, on the strength of an additional 22 ballots, we're revising that estimate downward slightly. At this time, our projection shows Newton earning just over 2300 points, or nearly 84% of a unanimous vote. To be sure, that's still a big damn deal - but it would drop him to fourth place all-time, behind Ricky Williams (85.2%). We now have a hard count of 13 Heisman voters who excluded Newton from their ballots entirely (plus 8 that ranked him #2 or #3.)
Also, Andrew Luck has pulled away a bit from LaMichael James - with nine first-place votes to LMJ's two, he now has a lead of roughly 3%, or a projected 80 points. (Note, however, that James has a slight lead in second-place votes -- and a second-place vote is worth double that of a third-place vote, while a first-place vote is only worth 50% more than a second-place vote.)
We're hoping to land another couple of dozen ballots today, with another round of contacts to Heisman voters.
For the ninth year in a row, we're going to attempt to project the outcome of the greatest individual award in sports, the Heisman Trophy. We've been right eight out of eight years.
But to do this, we need your help. If you read/see/hear someone identify themselves as an official voter (with or without their vote), post a comment on our voter tips line, share a note on our Facebook wall, or send us a note on Twitter (@stiffarmtrophy). If possible, provide a link (or at least tell us where you saw/heard/read it.)
Our latest projection
Last updated: 12/9/2010, 3:45 a.m. Pacific. 168 ballots, 447 votes.
| name | first | second | third | ballots | points | Projected | Proj% |
| C Newton | 147 | 4 | 4 | 155 | 453 | 2328 | 83.8% |
| A Luck | 9 | 44 | 36 | 89 | 151 | 824 | 29.7% |
| L James | 2 | 50 | 36 | 88 | 142 | 744 | 26.8% |
| K Moore | 3 | 32 | 21 | 56 | 94 | 526 | 18.9% |
| J Blackmon | 1 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 23 | 94 | 3.4% |
| D Robinson | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 93 | 3.3% |
| R Mallett | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 1.0% |
| C Kaepernick | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0.8% |
| T Taylor | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0.5% |
| R Kerrigan | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0.5% |
| T Pryor | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0.4% |
| P Peterson | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0.4% |
| M Lattimore | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0.4% |
| J Todman | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0.3% |
| O Marecic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0.3% |
| DQ Bowers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.2% |
| A Dalton | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.2% |
| M Leshoure | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.2% |
| N Solder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0.2% |
| S Acho | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.1% |
| C Harris | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.1% |
| N Fairley | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.1% |
| R Griffin | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.1% |
Have you heard an official voter declare their vote? Post your voter tips on StiffArmTrophy.com
View the complete list of the 600+ official Heisman voters that we know about.
Or check out The Big Chart, every single official Heisman vote that we've found this year.
Got questions? Read more about our methodology, and the results from 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009.