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ESPN: Numbers back Winston winning Heisman

Heading into Saturday’s 2013 Heisman Trophy ceremony, it’s seemingly a foregone conclusion that Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston will take home the award. The advanced metrics support Winston as a winner, and recent precedent based on these metrics shows it should be pretty lopsided.

Heisman-Winning QuarterbacksPrior to Heisman CeremonySince 2004(FBS ranks in parenthesis)

College football Total QBR data goes back to 2004 (as far back as we have play-by-play data), and there have been seven Heisman-winning quarterbacks since that year.

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About Stiff Arm Trophy

Since 2002, we've correctly projected the winner of every single Heisman Trophy contest -- giving us the longest active streak of correct picks.

When it comes to our projections, well, we really can't say it any better than ESPN's Neil Everett - just a few days before the 2009 winner was announced:

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