Stiff Arm Trophy

Heisman Projection: 156 ballots

Posted on December 6, 2012.

It's slow going, but we've got a few new votes trickling in. We're up to 156 ballots - which is where we start to ponder how many ballots we're going to need in order to make a formal call.

Typically, I like to be up over 200 ballots before doing that - but the closeness of the race matters. When Mark Ingram and Toby Gerhart were engaged in the closest vote ever, we had 313 ballots and I still wasn't particularly comfortable. But we got it right in 2002, our first year, when we only had 127 ballots - and again in 2006, when we only had 136 ballots.

Keep in mind that with 156 ballots down, that means that there are still 772 ballots that are unknown. And what we're doing is not a random sample -- it's a sample of people who are happy to tell us how they voted. The folks who keep it to themselves are typically older voters, more traditional voters, people who vote early, and voters who tended to vote against the emerging public sentiment. (In 2009, we projected Colt McCoy in fifth - and he placed third, mostly because his voters didn't want to hear from Cornhusker fans about how Suh tossed McCoy around like a rag doll in the Big XII championship game.) The former winners also tend to keep their votes to themselves.

We'll probably have one more update today, and then a final update and a formal call on Friday morning.

For the eleventh year in a row, we're going to attempt to project the outcome of the greatest individual award in sports, the Heisman Trophy. So far, we've been right ten out of ten years.

But to do this, we need your help. If you read/see/hear someone identify themselves as an official voter (with or without their vote), post a comment on our voter tips line, share a note on our Facebook wall, or send us a note on Twitter (@stiffarmtrophy). If possible, provide a link (or at least tell us where you saw/heard/read it.)

Our latest projection

Last updated: 12/6/2012 7:25 a.m. Pacific. 156 ballots, 425 votes.

J Manziel913120142355227881.8%
M Te'o455914118267159457.3%
C Klein8326610615493933.7%

M Lee411217261736.2%
B Miller131216211264.5%
J Lynch12259541.9%
M Ball10235271.0%
T Austin00333180.6%
J Jones00333170.6%
A McCarron00222160.6%
B Jones01123150.5%
J Clowney01123140.5%
M Mariota01123130.5%
K Carey0011180.3%
S Taylor0011170.3%
K Barner0011160.2%
B Rambo0011140.1%

Got questions? Something look funny? Get answers and read about our methodology.

Have you heard an official voter declare their vote? Post your voter tips on

View the complete list of the 700+ official Heisman voters that we know about.
Or check out The Big Chart, every single official Heisman vote that we've found this year.

Got questions? Read more about our methodology, and the results from 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011.