Got a voter tip?

If you've heard a voter declare their vote, share your voter tips here. This only works with your help!

Want to trash talk? Lay your smack down here.

Huh? What is this?

There are 926 official voters. Many of them are sportswriters who will reveal their picks in the media well before the trophy is awarded. We'll collect those picks here, and attempt to project the winner. Our methodology.

What's this "Stiff Arm" business?

Well, We're unable to use the H------ word since the official trophy organization threatened to sue us for using the H------ word or even showing pictures of the little bronze statuette. So, from here on out, it's the Stiff Arm Trophy. Stupid, but true.

Does it work?

So far, so good. In 2002, we projected Carson Palmer as the winner, and Brad Banks as the runner-up based on 127 actual ballots declared. We had the top five correct (though we had Larry Johnson at #5, not #3.) 2002 details.

In 2003, we nailed the top four - in order. On average, we were only 1.5% of the vote off from exactly calling the vote percentages for Jason White, Larry Fitzgerald, Eli Manning, and Chris Perry. We found 175 actual declared ballots. 2003 details.

In 2004, we nailed the top three in order - Matt Leinart, Adrian Peterson, and Jason White. We found 223 actual declared ballots that included 591 votes. 2004 details.

In 2005, we projected correctly the top five in order - Reggie Bush, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, Michael Robinson. We found 209 actual declared ballots that included 529 votes, and were able to project accurately that Reggie Bush would be the biggest winner of all-time. 2005 details.

In 2006, we found 136 actual declared ballots that included 353 votes and we projected correctly the top three finalists in order - Troy Smith, Darren McFadden, Brady Quinn. 2006 details.

In 2007, we found 249 actual declared ballots that included 685 votes and we projected correctly the top four in order - Tim Tebow, Darren McFadden, Colt Brennan, Chase Daniel. 2007 details.

Latest Updates

• Congrats to Sam Bradford!
• Notes from the Ceremony
• Memo to the media: The Downtown Athletic Club is gone
• Compiling the other projections
• Houston Chronicle features our analysis: it's #2 votes that matter most
• Bradford and McCoy splitting votes? No, it's the Bradford/McCoy alliance that's hurting Tebow.
• With 249 ballots, our final projection: Sam Bradford.
• Feedback loop
• 213 ballots: Bradford holding steady at 60%
• Back at it.
• 195 ballots: holding steady, too close to call
• About that Berry Tramel thing
• Whatever you do, don't listen to Tim Tebow
• 180 ballots: McCoy surge moves him ahead of Tebow
• 165 ballots: Bradford extends lead, still too close to call
• [view all updates]

Whose crazy idea is this?
This site is published by Kari Chisholm at Mandate Media, Portland, Oregon. We do internet strategy and web development for political candidates, campaigns, and causes - and once a year, we correctly project the winner of the H------ Trophy! © 2002-2008.